China Merchants Securities (600999): Steady Performance Continuous Interbank Institutional Brokers Keep Leading Edge

China Merchants Securities (600999): Steady Performance Continuous Interbank Institutional Brokers Keep Leading Edge

Performance review The 18-year performance was in line with expectations. China Merchants Securities’ 18-year revenue for several years was -15% to 113.

200 million, net profit attributable to mother ten years -23.

5% to 44.

3 trillion, ROAE-2 in the reporting period.

8ppt to 5.

5%; Corresponding 4Q18 net 杭州夜网论坛 profit was -16% MoM / + 7% to 13.

5 billion.

In addition, the company’s business and management fee rate is +4 per year.

3ppt to 50.

0%; own assets leverage for ten years +0.

2x to 3.

2 times.

  Development Trend The contribution of brokerage and wealth management income has further increased.

Brokerage and wealth management income is less than -9% to 6.5 billion US dollars, and the proportion of income + 4ppt to 57%: 1) Brokerage income-22% to 32 billion, the corresponding transaction market accounts for -0.

1ppt to 3.

7%, commission rate -3% to 10,000.

2. Maintain the industry premium; benefit from the optimization of the product sales structure, in which generation of financial product revenue increased by + 17% to 1.

600 million; 2) The risk control of the capital intermediary business is sound: the interest rate of the two financial institutions decreased by 7% to 36.

900 million, a surplus of -29% to 38.7 billion compared to the beginning of the year, with a market share of 5.

1%, period-end guarantee ratio is 255%; equity interest income from + 35% to 16 per year.

800 million, with a surplus of -26% to 22.8 billion from the beginning of the year, with a market share of 2.

0%, period-end guarantee ratio accounts for 255%; 3) The main brokerage business keeps the lead: the company’s private equity fund custody expansion products (market share 26.

5%), scale, number of public fund custody, WOFE custody expansion products ranked first in the industry.

  The decline in investment banking business is similar to the industry.

Investment bank revenue is -36% to 14 trillion per year, and revenue accounts for -4ppt to 12%: sub-underwriting market accounted for -0 in the past.

5ppt to 1.

5%, at the end of the period, 19 IPOs / 4th in the industry; debt underwriting market accounted for the previous -0.

7ppt to 4.

3%; M & A and restructuring scale was 37.1 billion yuan, ranking 7th in the industry.

  The investment management business was dragged down by private equity, and the scale of asset management initiative increased significantly.

Its income is -19% to 13 trillion per year, and its income ratio is -0.

5ppt to 11.

4%: 1) The scale of China Merchants Asset Management is -7% to 713.5 billion from the beginning of the year, but the scale of active management has increased by 82% to 231.3 billion, accounting for 32%; 2) The scale of China Merchants Zhiyuan management exceeds 21 billion; due to new accountingIt is expected that the fluctuation of the value of investment assets to the current profit and loss will reduce the company by one hundred million in 18 years; 3) In terms of public funds, Boshi (holding 49%) publicly raised AUM earlier + 26% to 556.8 billion, and its 18-year profit decreased -4% To 9.

0 billion; China Merchants Fund (holding 55% of shares) publicly raised AUM earlier -2% to 383.2 billion, 18-year profit +11 to 8.

9 billion.

  Fixed income self-employment led to growth in investment and trading business.

Its highest income is + 6% to 9 trillion, and its income ratio is + 2ppt to 8%: the company’s financial assets are + 41% to 150.3 billion compared with the beginning of the year, which is mainly driven by the growth of fixed income assets.Stocks / funds / brokerage asset management / other assets accounted for 67% / 8% / 21% / 1% / 3% respectively.

  Earnings forecast is raised by raising the 19-year market stock ADT to 600 billion coexistence and raising the company’s investment yield assumptions. We raise the company’s 2019 / 20e profit forecast by 11% / 9% to 59.100 million / 64.

300 million.

  Estimates and recommendations Companies currently sustainably correspond to 19e 1.

3x P / B.

Maintain recommended level and target price of 21.

22 yuan, corresponding to 19e 1.

7 times PBR and 29% growth space.

  Risk stock market activity has declined; capital market reforms have fallen short of expectations.